Maybe I am seeing things
that many observers
cannot see yet. Or maybe
I am deluded. But I will
continue to say that the
current blossoming of a
viable opposition is going
to be one of the greatest
catalysts for democracy
and development in
Nigeria. With the defection
of five PDP governors to
the APC, we are now
entering a phase in our
democracy where the
ruling party and the
opposition are almost
evenly matched, at least
on paper.
I, for one, had been
impatient with the PDP
governors because they
had been threatening
endlessly to defect to the
APC. Governor Murtala
Nyako (Adamawa) had
made it a daily habit to
announce that he was on
his way to the APC office
in Yola to pick
membership form. That’s
a done deal now.
But there are two broad
reactions to the latest
development...
Some are so excited.
They say it marks the end
of the 'evil' PDP and the
imminent enthronement of
'progressives' to “save
Nigeria” from misrule. To
these people, I say: calm
down. You don’t move
from being a “bad”
governor to a “good”
governor simply because
you defected from one
party to the other
yesterday. You don’t
suddenly become
Nigeria’s saviour because
you left PDP for APC after
a disagreement over the
national cake.
Like I have always said,
the PDP crisis is a falling-
out among a committee of
friends. It is not about
potable water or education
or healthcare. It is pure
power play. It is about
2015 elections. Who gets
the presidential ticket?
Who will be the running
mate? Whose son will be
governor in Adamawa
State? Nyako’s or
Bamanga Tukur’s?
On the other side, you
have people unfairly
condemning the
opposition. They said APC
is doomed to fail, that it is
a congregation of crooks,
that the party is just
driven by the lust for
power with all kinds of
characters jumping on the
bandwagon. Someone
pointed out that APC is
filled with people who
never see eye-to-eye on
matters such as fiscal
federalism, quota system,
federal character, state
police, “true federalism”
and all that.
To this group, I say:
what’s your problem? To
start with, we cannot
change government
democratically without
these politicians. I can
write all that I like on this
page every Sunday, but it
is politicians that are in
charge. Therefore, if we
want to change Nigeria
democratically, we need
these same politicians we
condemn. Change their
thinking and you will
change the fortunes of
Nigeria.
Let me say this again and
again and again: I do not
believe PDP is a party of
sinners and APC is a
party of saints. I do not
believe only PDP rigs or
only PDP is filled with
corrupt and inept leaders.
I would love to say that in
order to earn some
applause, but my
conscience will not allow
me. Nigerian politicians,
no matter their party,
language and religion, are
basically the same. Let
me be clear about that.
That is why they find it so
easy to swap political
parties from time to time
without feeling out of
place, without having to
battle any contradictions.
They are at home
anywhere they find
themselves.
It is the same set of
people that are circulating
and re-circulating in the
political space. Let’s not
kid ourselves.
Having said that, however,
let me quickly state my
position and then
conclude. I wrote, over
two years ago, that 2015
is going to be the tightest
election ever. I still stand
by my postulation. The
dynamics are already
pointing in that direction. I
cannot categorically say
that PDP will lose or APC
will win, but I can
confidently say that it is
not going to be a piece of
cake for either party. In
the past, PDP went into a
general election knowing
it was going to be a walk-
over, mainly because of a
heavily fragmented
opposition. Winning
PDP’s ticket was as good
as winning the election,
and the battle for PDP’s
tickets was, in many
instances, fiercer than the
actual election.
That effectively meant the
PDP had no incentive to
deliver the goods. It was
all too easy for them.
This puts the emerging
strong, viable opposition
into perspective. Under
normal circumstances,
President Goodluck
Jonathan should now
become desperate to
deliver democracy
dividends in order to win
public support ahead of
the 2015 elections. He still
has enough time in his
hands. On its part, the
APC should be raising the
game through well-
articulated alternative
policies and programmes,
showing off their
credentials in states they
currently govern as the
basis for Nigerians to
choose them ahead of the
PDP. Invariably, the
parties will have to sweat
for every vote.
Okay, there is the rigging
factor. I have discounted
that. Nigerian politicians
are, genetically, election
riggers. There will be
balance of rigging, as it
were.
Now, if my calculations
turn out fine - that is,
Jonathan rolls up his
sleeves and delivers more
democracy dividends and
APC raises the ante by
trying to outperform PDP
in the states - then
Nigeria and Nigerians will
be the unintended
beneficiaries of this new
wave of politicking. And
that way, our democracy
will begin to deliver
development. Hopefully
